2019 Kentucky Derby

It's that time of year again folks, first Saturday in May. Favorites have won the last six renewals since Churchill Downs went to a point system to determine the field instead of graded stakes earnings as in the past; however, I have a feeling this year might be different.

We're looking at a good chance of rain throughout next week. They'll draw the post positions next week and I'll put a c-note on my top pick to win which is normally a kiss of death for some poor critter's chances of wearing the roses.

The Oaks is run on Friday for the fillies to show their stuff. They used to call it Louisville's day at the races before the production became a two day affair. 70,000 people could hide in Churchill Downs like a herd of buffalo behind a berm on the plains but attendance is much greater now. My Oaks record is admittedly better than Derby and the Oaks/Derby double is my favorite fun bet of the year. It always feels good having the double going with the first bloody Mary on Saturday.

I'm looking forward to the race this year, more fun than a barrel full of monkeys.

Will be with you in spirit and watching it

My previous Kentucky Derby winning picks:

1985 Spend a Buck
1988 Winning Colors
1989 Sunday Silence
1990 Unbridled
2001 Monarchos
2004 Smarty Jones
2012 I'll Have Another

Man I was on a roll in the 80s huh? The 90s, not so much. Seven winners in 40 years is a 17.5% clip. That's actually not too bad by Derby standards, better than most of the locally based turf writers in my time.

...fingers crossed, Mark!

Currently, there's an 80% chance of rain in Louisville Thursday and Friday with a 60% chance Saturday. We might have a real mess here this weekend.

Kentucky Oaks post positions were drawn today. Derby post positions will be drawn tomorrow morning at 11:00 AM EST and then the game will be afoot.

10Furlongs wrote:Currently, there's an 80% chance of rain in Louisville Thursday and Friday with a 60% chance Saturday. We might have a real mess here this weekend.

Kentucky Oaks post positions were drawn today. Derby post positions will be drawn tomorrow morning at 11:00 AM EST and then the game will be afoot.

...will be following along with you...

Derby Favorite Omaha Beach scratched yesterday. It's all but certain we'll have rain in Louisville for the next three days. The race is much wider open that it was at this time last week.

In the Kentucky Oaks for the fillies tomorrow, I'm going to take a shot on #3 Lady Apple (morning line odds 20-1). She's won three in a row this year at Oaklawn and has also won on an off track. Her real chances appear closer to 8-1 to me so I'd make a pretty hearty Win/Place bet at 20-1. She'll definitely be one of a few I use on my Oaks/Derby double ticket as well.

We've had thunderstorms all night and it's still pouring this morning. It's not supposed to stop until around 2:00 PM EST so Oaks will be a total washout today. Rain showers continue on and off through the night and tomorrow; however, there's nothing severe tomorrow. The track has a high sand content and dries out quickly; however, I don't see much chance for a "fast" track tomorrow but there's still a glimmer of hope for perhaps a "good" track as opposed to muddy or sloppy by race time.

My Derby pick this year is #8 Tacitus. He's bred to run all day, has tactical speed and I look for him to be coming down the lane late. I'll bet him Win/Place. My long shot is #13 Code of Honor. I already have a future book win bet on him locked in at 27-1 odds made early this year so it'll also be a good day if he wears the roses. I'll box those two with #16 Game Winner and #7 Maximum Security in my baby exacta ticket. That means the party is on if any of the four finish first and second in any order.

Just so you know, the last time I hit the exacta in Derby was 1990, Unbridled/Summer Squall.

On one final note, the last time a Derby Favorite scratched after post positions were drawn was in 2009. That year a horse named Mine that Bird pulled off the biggest Derby shocker in my racing lifetime winning at 50-1 odds on a sloppy track. I didn't have that one but my eyes will be on the tote board this year.

Good racing y'all.

Happy to see you having fun, Mark!

Local news had a segment on appropriate cocktails for the Kentucky Derby, and then saw an update on the races.

My pick Lady Apple ran third in the Oaks yesterday at 10-1 odds. Assisted by an off track, the winner was able to go wire to wire. Speed held up well yesterday. It was tough for horses coming from off the pace to make up any ground. I'll be looking more closely at that today as the races unfold.

As is my customary practice, I only bet Lady Apple Win/Place or "Willie Pete" as I like to say. Show betting never produced a positive return on investment in the long haul so I ceased the practice decades ago. I get snake bit every so often and miss cashing a few tickets but it helps the bottom line.

I hit the very first race I played yesterday and went bolo the remainder so I'll have to do a little better today to salvage the weekend. It's raining now. According to my Weather Channel app it'll continue on and off all day right into Derby; consequently, I'll have my work cut out for me today.

Good racing y'all.

After the disqualification of the winner today, I received pretty nice place money on Code of Honor for finishing second but it wasn't enough to salvage the weekend. I sacrificed for the cause this year but it wasn't a brutal pounding as I did cash a few tickets on the undercard.

That's a wrap for Derby 2019.

The disqualification of the winner last Saturday has really created a firestorm in the horse racing community.

Yes, there was absolutely interference by the winner; however, this has never been called one time in the entire history of Derby. I've personally witnessed worse first hand, especially in the first turn where jockeys are fighting for position.

If it really was a safety issue for both horses and jockeys, Churchill Downs would have reduced the maximum size of the field to 14 years ago which is the standard for every other major horse race in the US.

None of the horses which crossed the finish line in the top four will be going to Preakness, a first since 1951. Not a banner year for Thoroughbred racing thus far.

Mark, I was with you that day, but due to all the stuff here I dozed off at the wrong time. One of my friends on the west coast did a play by play and explanation of what went on later that evening.
Know that my heart is always with you and Beloved Kentucky on that day in perpetuity. Our honeymoon was at the hotel right next to The Downs.

I will try to catch up on some other threads later, lucidity pending

...the lucidity issue is always a factor for me as well, Colonel...

It's Preakness weekend now which should be interesting given the unusual set up moving towards the race. I've settled on a long shot in this field, Owendale at 10-1 morning line odds. There aren't any giant killers in the field this year and he appears on the improve. My play will be win and place as normal.

Bon chance, Mark...

I don't normally play many exotic wagers but I think Bourbon War is a nice horse. I don't know if he wants the distance but he has a chance with a good trip. I'm listening to HRRN this morning and they're really chirping on the Maryland horse Alwaysmining. I'll box those two with my top choice Owendale. The exacta would pay boxcars and worth a little shot.

...hope you come out in the black, buddy...

The head bob for place kept me from cashing a ticket as Owendale finished third. This Triple Crown hasn't been my year so far. The Belmont is in three weeks and this one will be in the books.

...got bored with the usual TV fodder, thought of Mark, and tuned into the 151st Belmont Stakes...

I didn't factor in the winner at all for Belmont. Another Triple Crown in the can.